Week 13

Accounting Analytics

Instructors
Maclean Gaulin

Gamut of analytics in accounting

  • Acquisition: collecting and measuring data
  • Storage: could just be excel, but hopefully not!
  • Cleaning: ensuring the quality of the data, audits
  • Combination: combining multiple data sources
  • Analysis: modeling the economics
  • Communication: conveying accounting insights
  • Data driven decisions: using analytical conclusions to inform decision-makers

Uses of Data Analytics in Business

  • Data-driven decision-making
  • Improved operations
  • Better customer understanding
  • Risk assessment & management
  • Regulatory compliance

Where you fit in

  • Regardless of your analytics chops, your domain expertise will always be valuable
  • Don’t underestimate how impactful knowing accounting can be in DA conversations
  • Don’t overestimate how much others know about accounting, you’re the expert!
  • Play to your strengths

Data in 2025

  • There’s a lot of it
  • The 5 Vs:
  • Volume
  • Velocity
  • Variety
  • Veracity
  • Value

Move to the (Private) cloud

  • Only pay for storage (bits) and usage (CPU cycles)
  • Server hardware maintained by third party
  • Shifting CapEx to OpEx with EBITDA impact
  • Provider shares resources amongst clients (or not)
  • Server software maintained by third party
  • Firm avoids dealing with software updates, fixes, etc.
  • Customization often more difficult (platform lock-in)
  • Leverage external analytics expertise

Cloud Computing caveats

  • Cloud systems solve problems (tech assets, access, scale) but create others (security, complexity)
  • ROI on moving to the cloud is unclear
  • 66% of execs say cloud hasn’t lowered IT cost (KPMG 2022)
  • Can create audit-trail concerns (right to audit)

Big Data Storage

  • Data Lake: centralized hub of unstructured data
  • Stores data in “raw” unprocessed format (as-is)
  • Because storage is “cheap,” firms now often keep all data in its raw form, and process later when needed
  • Data Warehouse: centralized hub of structured data
  • Stores pre-processed data (schema-on-write)
  • Governance and quality controls ensure datasets are properly formatted, normalized, ready to use

Unstructured Data

  • Text, images, etc.
  • Structure is missing, not-consistent, or complex
  • 80-90% of collected data is unstructured
  • Needs processing before it can be used
  • AI is making processing this data far easier
  • Examples:
  • Invoices, receipts
  • Regulations, FAQs, instructions, guidance

Structured Data

  • Think of a spreadsheet with columns (variables) and rows (observations)
  • Often quantitative, easily processed for analytics
  • Can be broken into multiple, related tables (RDB)
  • Examples:
  • General ledger
  • Chart of accounts

Wide vs Long

IDFirst NameLast Name# Sales
1AryllZelda394
2ByrneYunobo604
3CiaXani12
IDVariableValue
1First NameAryll
1Last NameZelda
1# Sales394
2First NameByrne
2Last NameYunobo
2# Sales604
3First NameCia
3Last NameXani
3# Sales12
  • “Wide” format: add data in columns
  • Each column is a different variable
  • “Long” format: add data in rows
  • Repeat IDs, columns for variable and value

Where: Central tendency

Where: Central tendency

How Spread Out: variability

How Spread Out: variability

Shape: Skewness

Shape: Skewness

Why Visualize?

Dataset
xy
55.497.2
51.596.0
46.294.5
42.891.4
40.888.3
38.784.9
35.679.9
33.177.6
29.074.5
26.271.4
55.497.2
……

Visualization as Communication

  • Concisely conveying data
  • Telling stories for retention
  • Relevant XKCD
Visualization as Communication

Relevant XKCD

Leverage Strengths, Mitigate Weaknesses

  • Leveraging strengths of human cognition
  • Visual bandwidth1: About 20 Mbps (1Gbps total)
  • Pre-attentive processing2: Instinctive processing
  • Graphical perception3: Process some designs better
  • Mitigate constraints of human cognition
  • Avoid overloading limited “working memory”4
  • Leverage external recognition

1

2

3

4

4D Example – 2D + Time + Size

4D Example – 2D + Time + Size

Truncated Axes

Scaled Axes

mean vs median

  • Median is “middle” of data
  • Mean (expected value) is weighted by values
  • Data: https://www.cbo.gov/publication/60706#_idTextAnchor039

Spurious Correlations

  • Credit Tyler Vigen

Exploratory Data Analysis

  • “You can see a lot, just by looking” ~ Yogi Berra
  • EDA establishes understanding of the data before assumptions are made or complex modeling techniques are applied
  • More EDA now, fewer mistakes later
  • Finds “unknown unknowns”
  • Be curious and judgmental
  • Skepticism is important, look for errors, bias, misinformation, etc.

combining data

  • Combining to get variables from multiple sources
  • External data (marketing data, economic data, etc.)
  • Various internal systems (invoices, production, etc.)
  • Aggregation
  • Aggregation can require combining data with itself
  • Analysis, cleaning, and verification
  • Comparing observations, interpolating, etc.

Relational Database

  • Database
  • Table 1: GL_Detail
  • Table 2: Chart_of_Accounts
journal_idline_idaccount_idamount
119003500
122002500
139500350
144002350
account_idaccount_name
1000Cash
2002Receivables
4002Inventory
8002Retained Earnings
9003Revenue
9500COGS

SQL: Structured Query Language

  • SQL is the language used to interact with RDBs
  • SQL playground: sqlbolt.com
  • Do you need to know SQL?
  • You should understand conceptually the moving parts
  • You should understand what it can and can’t do
  • Which you can ask LLMs
  • Learn it if you need it, are interested, or taking the ISC section of the CPA

sqlbolt.com

Inner join

  • Just keep rows that match (join keys are in both tables)
  • Most common join (JOIN keyword in SQL is inner)

Outer join

  • Keeps all rows from both tables
  • Rows that do not match other table are filled with missing (NULL)
  • Can create large datasets
NULLs
NULLs

Left/Right join

  • Keeps all rows in one table
  • Used to add columns from another table without altering original rows
  • Left and right join are the same with swapped table orders
  • A left join B = B right join A
NULLs

Aggregations

  • Calculations across multiple rows
  • Counting, summing, averaging, regressions, etc.
  • Aggregations collapse multiple rows into one
  • Often combined with merges
  • E.g. total expenses by vendor within date range
  • Often done in “subquery” and merged

Extract, Transform, Load

  • Acquiring data needs to be robust and repeatable
  • Extract
  • Ingest data
  • Transform
  • Clean and format data
  • Load
  • Save data to storage
Content Placeholder 9

Automating Data Use

  • Dashboards, KPIs for decision makers
  • Continual process analysis, internal audit
  • Robotic Process Automation (RPA) to achieve specific tasks
  • Small one-off tasks (filing PDFs, scraping data, etc.)

Human in the Loop

  • RPA can’t handle un-known circumstances
  • Well it will, but you probably won’t like it
  • Human in the loop is when your process calls a human for help
  • Important decision oversight
  • When something goes wrong

Common RPA Uses

  • Accounts Payable (procure-to-pay): automate invoice processing (OCR) and vendor payments
  • Accounts Receivable (order-to-cash): automate invoicing, billing, and collections
  • Data Acquisition: automate downloading data, client files, etc.
  • Account Reconciliations: automatically reconcile financial accounts and ledgers, 100% testing, flagging errors for review
  • Report Generation: automate pulling, processing, and formatting of data into regular reports
  • Payroll & HR expenses: validate timesheets, initiate direct deposits, employee expense reimbursements

What to do with our data?

  • Once we have data, what then?
  • Use it!
  • Model the world
  • Descriptive: What happened?
  • Diagnostic: Why did it happen?
  • Predictive: What will happen?
  • Prescriptive: What should we make happen?

Healthy Skepticism

  • Analytical models can be very powerful
  • But that doesn’t obviate your professional skepticism
  • Apply your domain knowledge
  • Question the assumptions
  • Question the model
  • Question the data

Garbage in, Garbage out

  • Random errors (called noise) results in worse measures and outcomes, but randomly
  • E.g. predicting default risk inaccurately
  • Errors all in the same direction (called bias) can result in consistently wrong results
  • E.g. always underestimating default risk
  • Minimize noise, beware bias

Correlation is not Causation

  • Important to differentiate when making decisions
  • Causal inference is designed to identify causation
  • Has its own caveats, but better than nothing

Model interpretability

  • Machine learning is great at capturing correlation
  • ML models are often impossible to understand
  • Understanding a model is important to understanding when it will work and when it won’t
  • E.g. ChatGPT seems to be able to “think” until you come across non-existent citations
  • Accountants must justify their work
  • To auditors, investors, regulators, etc.

Business Significance

  • Statistical significance: high certainty in the model
  • Economic significance: how many dollar signs?
  • Remember that models don’t have business sense
  • Important to translate model conclusions into economic impact on costs or revenues

Categorizing Analytical Methods

Categorizing Analytical Methods

Fitting Lines and Errors

Fitting Lines and Errors

What is a good fit?

What is a good fit?
  • How well does the model describe the data you have
  • Called in sample fit, based on training data
  • How well does the model predict new data
  • Called out of sample fit, based on test data
What is a good fit?

Overfitting: too much of a good thing

  • Some models can just memorize the training data
  • Does not mean they have learnt the “truth”
Overfitting: too much of a good thing

Time-series data – Forecasting

  • Each observation is related to the next
  • Order matters
  • Example: Revenue data over time

Forecasting Cautions

  • Training data could contain random economic events that aren’t indicative of the future (overfitting)
  • New economic events that aren’t modeled can occur (underfitting)
  • Uncertainty increases when forecasting further out
Forecasting Cautions

Causal Analysis

  • Compare outcome to “counterfactual”
  • Anything that is different between treatment and control could potentially cause the estimated effect
  • Called omitted variables or measurement error
  • Solutions to identify causality limit generalizability
  • If you can’t define how treatment results in outcome (the mechanism), be very skeptical
  • If you can, then that’s potentially testable

Classifier vs Regression?

  • Regression Approach
  • Classification Approach
Classifier vs Regression?
Classifier vs Regression?

Confusion Matrix

Outcomes
Is PositiveIs Negative
PredictionsPredict PositiveTrue PositiveFalse Positive
Predict NegativeFalse NegativeTrue Negative
  • Positive and negative don’t mean anything other than the two outcomes
  • You could reverse them, nothing would change

Accuracy Calculations

Outcomes
PredictionsTPFP
FNTN

Accuracy Calculations

Outcomes
PredictionsTPFP
FNTN

Confusion Matrix

Actual Outcome
DefaultedPaid
PredictionPredict defaultTPFP
Predict payFNTN

Receiver Operating Curve

Receiver Operating Curve

Unsupervised Learning

  • A bag of skittles is dumped on the floor, and all measurements taken (color, size, location, etc.)
  • Clustering – separate skittles into colors
  • Dimensionality Reduction – first “factor” is color, then location, no difference in size

Centroid Clustering

Centroid Clustering

Density Clustering

Density Clustering

Hierarchical Clustering

Dimensionality Reduction

AI is a big regression

  • Still just fitting a line
  • A very very very complex line
  • LLMs predict next-word probability (e.g., logistic regression)
  • Fits the line with a neural network
  • Different types of NNs based on connection of neurons
  • Transformers changed the game

Transformers: Chat GPT

  • Text is broken into “tokens”
  • E.g., shareholder equity = assets - liabilities
  • Network predicts probabilities of next word
  • Next word is randomly selected
Transformers: Chat GPT

How LLMs process information

  • next word = m * X
  • m is the weights (learned coefficients)
  • X is the context (input data)
  • Human analogy: long vs short term memory
  • Weights are everything you know and how you think
  • Context is what you’re thinking now (applying that knowledge)

Context Considerations

  • The entire context window is included in processing
  • A prompt may need refining with some back & forth
  • Consider ending with “write a new prompt that captures all the updates over our conversation”, try in new chat
  • Use files or other resource to provide necessary info
  • E.g. The HTML file from Lab 6 with table details
  • Attempt different prompts, require & check citations
  • Assistants have pre-set context, data, or examples

Updating LLM Knowledge

  • Preloaded context (GPTs / Gems)
  • Customized system prompt for specific functionality
  • Retrieval Augmented Generation (RAG)
  • LLM does a google search (of just your documents)

Enabling Tools for AI

  • MCP describes tools in English, simple syntax to call
  • MCP client takes LLM output, talks to MCP server

Agentic AI

  • Tool using AI: an employee told to do a specific task
  • Agentic AI: a manager that decides what tasks to do
  • Example: tax agent to analyze tax positions, evaluate adherence to existing regulations and estimate risk
  • Incorporates feedback/looping, executing until it observes and decides its objective is met
  • Can be hierarchical, high-level agents orchestrating a series of specialized sub-agents

Survey Evidence

  • 44% of CFOs report using AI, only 33% at scale
  • 88% of employees report using AI
  • 37% worry reliance on AI will erode skills & expertise
  • 64% of employees report higher workload
  • Only 5% using AI to significantly alter their workflow
  • Q1 2026: 54% of firms deploying AI agents
  • 60% expect humans to manage agent “teams”

value realization gap

  • Desire to implement AI / data analytics is ubiquitous
  • Ability to do so is not, creating the value gap
  • Common frictions to adoption:
  • Technology learning curve
  • Employee adoption
  • C-level acceptance
  • Implementation difficulty (trust & governance)
  • Data availability

Barriers to Adoption

  • Data security & privacy
  • 36% employees admit to using non-approved LLM
  • Accuracy & data
  • Mitigating hallucinations
  • Acquiring useful, clean, and reliable data
Barriers to Adoption
  • Source: KPMG AI in financial reporting and audit, 2024

Smart Alliance

  • ACCA report finds half of accounting and finance leadership in AI adoption roles, 20% strategic owners
  • Natural extension for the business data roles
  • Moving from data preparation to advisory roles

What you did

  • Data engineering: clean data, ETL, SQL, EDA
  • Data visualization: histograms, line charts, trends
  • Data analysis: regressions, classifiers
  • AI: vibe coding

Illusion of Knowledge

  • “The greatest enemy of knowledge is not ignorance, it is the illusion of knowledge.” ~ Daniel J. Boorstin
  • “If you can't explain something to a six-year-old, you really don't understand it yourself.” ~ not Albert Einstein
  • As the data expert, you are the most valuable and necessary part of the analysis. ~ Me

Healthy Skepticism

  • Analytical models can be very powerful
  • But that doesn’t obviate your professional skepticism
  • Apply your domain knowledge
  • Question the assumptions
  • Question the model
  • Question the data

Coming up

  • Wednesday: Lab 12 & Project 4 work-session
  • Next week (week 14):
  • Monday: Live lab / demo
  • Wednesday: KPMG AI guest speakers
  • Week 15: Presentations
  • Sign up on spreadsheet in announcement
  • Load presentation slides before class
  • Hard stop at 10 minutes
Accounting Analytics